Monday, July 18, 2011

Victory

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Victory
By Christian A. DeHaemer | Monday, July 18th, 2011

In last week's Whiteboard Weekly video, Christian told anyone who would listen to buy GM puts. Those puts are now up 105% in a week's time. If you missed it, make sure to tune in every week for new videos. And by all means, check out the next play Christian thinks will soar before you read his editorial below.

To your wealth,

Brian Hicks

Brian Hicks
Publisher, Wealth Daily


The sky was velvet blue over Mongolia's windswept steppes the day I almost died.

You see, the investment safari I was on took a day off from visiting coal mines and listening to lawmakers and stock market managers to get in touch with the culture...

Culture is never a good idea.

chris tank
Our bright orange Soviet-era chopper had dropped us off at a magnificent resort hotel in a valley on a river. I still don't know the name of it, but in a wonderful example of frontier market financing, we were the only guests. The staff outnumbered us five to one.  

The common response in Mongolia to any question is, “This is Mongolia.”

As in, “Are there bathrooms here?”

“This is Mongolia. Just walk that way for a bit.”

The Mongolians don't do anything soft; there is no word for “please” in the native language.

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There was to be horse riding. Needless to say, there weren't any helmets or lessons — or hospitals, for that matter. If you break a leg, they call the shaman to cast out the evil.

An old man and a boy used a long stick with a rope on the end to gather up about twenty feral horses. They saddled these beasts with a nylon pillow knotted to a wire rack with goat sinew.

Cowboy Hammer

Now, I find myself on a horse about once every ten years. It's like clockwork. The only thing I know about horses is that, like dogs and New Yorkers, you have to let them know who's boss. Other than that, the guide told us to climb and dismount on the left side and hold the reigns in our left hands.

The sun was beating like a goatskin drum and the grass lay green, verdant, and unsullied all the way to the Urals.

There was a beautiful couple there from Argentina. These are the type of people who run investment funds and ride polo ponies. 

The wife — a professional dancer — gave me a bit of advice with a rolling accent. “It might seem so at the time, but it is rarely a good idea to get off a moving horse...” 

Argentina Banks

The husband said something that might turn out to be more profound: “Argentina is not a debt story.”

This took me back a bit. I hadn’t thought about Argentina in more than two years. I had played some agricultural stocks before 2008, but the country had dropped off my radar.

Argentina defaulted on all of its debt back in 2001, and has been an international pariah ever since. But my new friend told me the country is growing at 8.2% a year, and that in this case, debt didn’t matter...

You see, Argentina has resources and food — exactly what its number one trading partner, China, likes to buy.

The boom in commodities has filtered into the rest of the Merval. Since the default, the Argentina stock market has climbed from 200 to close to 4,000. Unemployment is at 7.4% and falling. And as far as debt goes, Argentina has reached deals with 92% of its debt holders. Just this week, creditors agreed to exchange two-thirds of its outstanding bad debt for new bonds in a deal worth around $12 billion.

The government is now hoping to raise new international loans at better interest rates. Inflation in Argentina is running around 20% a year — a very high number, to be sure. But if the government can get cheaper loans, and interest rates start to drop, it stands to reason that the big banks will do very well.

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Ride Sally Ride

My Argentine friend gave me a quick smile and shot off across the steppe at a fast gallop.   

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Moving to follow him, I spurred my beast on to give chase. I was riding strong and feeling confident as I screamed past some angry mongrel and scattered a heard of bleating goats. About 100 meters into a fast gallop, I chopped along out of the saddle, knees bent and balanced on the balls of my feet...

Then my right stirrup simply fell off. 

The reigns were in my left hand, my right hand was on the bit of metal they call a pommel, and as the stirrup gave way, I lurched heavily to the starboard side.

Pulling hard with my left hand to stay on the horse dug the bit painfully into the soft part of the brute’s mouth.

He started spinning like some sort of Planet of the Apes-themed teacup-nightmare amusement ride.

The first time the horse came around, the saddle started to inch over. I thought he was going to roll on me...

By the second spin, I realized my faithful Mongolian guides weren’t going to ride up at the last minute and save me. 

On the third rotation, time had nearly stopped. Adrenaline was coursing through my veins, and as I desperately fought for balance, hooves hit the rocks like an axe.

Sincerely,


Christian DeHaemer
Editor, Wealth Daily

P.S. I will tell you more of my adventures, the amazing growth potential of Argentine banks, and the world's most undervalued coal mine next week. You can learn more about the best oil investment opportunity in East Africa right now.

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Wealth Daily Blogs


Economic Releases for the week of Monday, July 18th, 2011:

Jul 18 - NAHB Housing Market Index
Jul 20 - MBA Mortgage Index
Jul 20 - Existing Home Sales
Jul 21 - Philadelphia Fed
Jul 19 - Building Permits
Jul 19 - Housing Starts
Jul 21 - Leading Indicators

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