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Big Oil's Big Test By Adam Lass | Thursday, June 30th, 2011 Yes, I know this is usually Chris DeHaemer's spot, but he's still stuck somewhere in the hinterlands of Central Mongolia, so I am going to step in and bail the poor guy out. The sort of memetic analysis I do requires large pools of data in order to have any sort of validity at all. So I like to look at really big companies, larger sectors, or even entire economies. But that doesn't mean I can't come up with the answer to THE critical question for E&C readers: Is Big Oil on the verge of a major bust? Or will it break off its tumble and return to its wild ways? Advertisement Are You Prepared for the Economic Tsunami on June 30th? Most Americans are completely oblivious. But by today's end, our entire way of life could very rapidly start crashing down... This free video reveals shocking footage that proves the game is up — and what you can do to protect your family while there is still time! Technical Double Talk? The technical answer is yes. No, really! The driving arguments are as follows: "Long Oil" theorists figure there ain't but so much crude available on any given day, and China and India want it all (or at least as much as they can get their hands on). And then there are the Peak Oil folks who believe we are actually running out of the black stuff. Advertisement More than a Trillion Barrels The biggest oil reserve ever discovered isn't in the Middle East or Russia... And the Real Answer Short-term (and perhaps long-term too, but again another argument for another day), it is the dollar that is moving oil up down and sideways right now. Forget all those "there's more of it or less of it today than yesterday" arguments. Day to day, it's just the dollar moving oil and nothing more.
Oil is bought sold and priced globally in dollars, and is therefore the actual metric we see on the side of most any oil price chart. Lately, the dollar has been rising on the whole "Greek-Default-Will-Destroy-the-Euro" meme. So this week, the dollar is once again falling. And this week, oil is once again rising. This could change again by next week if the Greek mobs have their way. But that's the situation on the ground right now.
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Thursday, June 30, 2011
Big Oil's Big Test
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